Expect the Unexpected in 2017
The new year begins... Expect the unexpected in 2017... The 'Trump Trade' continues... New 14-year highs for the U.S. dollar... A bottom in gold and silver?... 'Buy a house now!'... Must-see: Steve's '2017 Blueprint' for investors...
The new year is here...
We hope you and your families enjoyed the holidays... And we wish you the best in the coming year.
As for the markets, all we can say is 2017 promises to be interesting...
The 35-year bull market in bonds is teetering... Inflation is stirring around the globe for the first time in years... and President-elect Trump is pushing for the most sweeping economic and regulatory changes in a generation.
In short, some of the most important trends of the past several years – falling interest rates, deflation, and a heavy-handed government – could be reversing... and the coming year could look far different than many expect.
In the meantime, the first trading day of 2017 began much as 2016 ended...
The year-end "Trump Trade" – defined by rising stock prices, falling bond prices, and a stronger U.S. dollar – continued this morning.
All the major U.S. stock indexes opened higher. U.S. Treasury bonds opened lower. And the U.S. dollar hit a fresh 14-year high...
We continue to expect at least a short-term reversal in these trends. They're getting extremely stretched, and several measures of investor sentiment have reached levels that often precede a reversal.
Investors are growing incredibly bullish on stocks and the dollar, and incredibly bearish on bonds.
One trend that may have already reversed is in precious metals...
Like Treasurys, gold and silver are oversold. And folks who were enamored with gold and silver last summer are throwing in the towel. In fact, while gold, silver, and mining stocks remain well above last year's bear market lows, some measures of investor sentiment are even more bearish today than they were back then.
Yet both gold and silver quietly bottomed in mid-December and have been moving higher since.
Of course, this may not be "the bottom" in the recent correction... So keep an eye on your stops, particularly in more speculative vehicles. But we continue to believe a significant bottom is near, and precious metals could trade sharply higher in coming months.
Longtime Digest readers know Steve Sjuggerud has been extremely bullish on U.S. housing for more than six years now...
And he has been exactly right. Home prices are up significantly since 2011... And they've absolutely soared in some areas.
Given this trend, you might think it's too late to profit.
Not so, says Steve. In fact, he says housing is one of his top recommendations for the coming year.
Despite rising prices, Steve says housing in many areas (including his home state of Florida) is still incredibly cheap. But it may not stay that way much longer... So he's urging interested readers to take advantage of this opportunity as soon as possible. As he wrote in today's edition of our free DailyWealth e-letter...
Get to Florida and buy a house. Now. I'm not kidding. If you wait any longer, you might miss this opportunity. And believe me, you don't want to miss it. I've personally been buying real estate for years... But the opportunity isn't over. Not even close...
The median home value in Orlando, Florida is around $161,000, according to Zillow.com. And the median home value in Jacksonville, Florida is $144,000. I can't tell you that the median home in either of these places is the right home for you, but my point is that Florida real estate is still CHEAP.
Meanwhile, as Steve explained, the supply of new homes in Florida has barely recovered since the housing crisis 10 years ago...
Homebuilding in Florida has been incredibly slow for a very long time now. Take a look...
One of the most basic rules of economics is that prices rise when there's a lot of demand and not enough supply. So without enough supply, house prices should rise.
In addition, Steve noted that mortgage rates remain near historic lows, and the incoming Trump administration is likely to be incredibly friendly to real estate owners and investors.
In short, Steve says we still have a perfect setup in U.S. housing...
And he is urging investors to make owning real estate a top priority in 2017.
But housing is just one of six major opportunities Steve has identified for the coming year. In the January issue of his True Wealth advisory, he laid out his full "2017 blueprint," explaining exactly how to profit from each of them.
Again, we can't share Steve's specific investment recommendations here today. It simply wouldn't be fair to his subscribers. But you can get instant access to Steve's full 2017 blueprint with a 100% risk-free trial to True Wealth.
True Wealth normally sells for just $199 a year. That's well within the budget of any serious investor. But because Steve wants to encourage as many folks as possible to read this research, he has agreed to temporarily slash the cost in half.
Right now, you can try Steve's True Wealth advisory for just $99. That's less than $2 per week. We'll even give you a full 30 days to review Steve's work and decide if it's right for you. If you're not completely happy, simply let us know and we'll issue a full refund for every penny. Click here for all the details.
New 52-week highs (as of 1/2/17): none (markets were closed in observance of New Year's Day).
We're kicking off 2017 with a little positivity in the mailbag. How did your portfolio fare in 2016? And what would you like to do better this year? Let us know at email@example.com.
"To Porter and all the contributors to the Digest... Thank you for providing a fantastic read. The Digest is fabulous! I genuinely look forward to reading it. There is always something newsworthy. I wish Porter and all contributing writers a very merry Christmas, happy holiday and prosperous New year. Thank you." – Paid-up subscriber Nancy M.
"Porter, I am very excited to hear about Stansberry's new plan to put one's financial house in order. However, I must tell you that being a long time follower of Stansberry products and a Flex subscriber (an honest one at that), I feel I already have my financial house in order.
"Thanks to learning through you and Stansberry I know now about stop losses, position sizing, how to value companies (and then find a price one would like to pay), options (mostly simple puts and calls but some collars also) and risk aversion. I have in place several positions in insurance and capital efficient companies as my portfolio back bone and sell puts and have purchased a couple of bonds (at deep discount to par of course) as well as dabble in a few shorts. I also look forward to putting on some of the longer dated calls in your Big Trade product.
"The only reason I know what any of this means is because I was able to learn through you and your company. You have personally built something that provides the greatest service to me at the best value I have ever seen in my life. I truly thank you for what you have made and wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas and a Happy & Prosperous New Year." – Paid-up subscriber Tyson J.
"P.J. O'Rourke gets the prize for best new franchise. Sorry Porter, but the Digests should start with his missives. They make light of tough business and make it easier to take the truth. Love all of you guys, Merry Christmas!" – Paid-up Stansberry Alliance member Carol Mack
"Porter, after completing my first year as a Stansberry Alliance member, I finally took your advice. I signed up for two years of Dr. Smith's TradeStops.
"I must admit my biggest downfall is position sizing and setting stops to get out of positions. To be frank, I suck at doing this. However, that is going to change effective two days ago. You see I had terrific gains in gold and silver positions but didn't use trade stop alerts to get me out in time. Yes, I did sell a few of them for profits, but I also left a lot on the table. The point is I would have been money ahead to buy Trade Stops early in 2016. Overall, I feel good about 2017 and am looking forward to the new Portfolio Solutions coming out in January. Happy New Year!" – Paid-up Stansberry Alliance member Bill L.
Brill comment: You're not alone, Bill... As we mentioned before the holidays, failing to properly manage risk is probably the single biggest reason most investors lose money. In fact, Dr. Smith recently sat down with several actual Stansberry Research subscribers to show them exactly how much more money they could have made using his TradeStops service. Click here to see for yourself.
"Porter, another year, another opportunity to learn from the best teacher. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and experience; I'm looking forward to the opportunity to thank you in person in Nicaragua next month. Regarding my Alliance membership, I will forever be in Jamison Miller's debt for his help getting me onboard. I'm hoping he'll be in Nicaragua next month as well. I'm very happy that our partnership is as good a deal for you as it is for me. I'm happy to report that I've been with Stansberry's Credit Opportunities and Stansberry Gold & Silver Investor since the beginning and am very pleased with our results! I'm also excited to see how our Big Trade ideas could work out.
"Thanks for the reminder of why being able to save money is so important. Both you and Dan Ferris do such a great job explaining why that piece is so critical to investing success. Like you mentioned, the ability to save is not enough unfortunately. We have to develop the skill to intelligently invest our savings. You've been an absolute blessing to my family and I in that regard. Please check in with the Metropolitan Man for his thoughts on 2017 when you can. His perspective was very interesting. Thank you for your continued dedication to your mission of giving us the same information you would want to know if the roles were reversed. Merry Christmas to you and your family, Porter. See you next month!
"P.S. I just shaved with my new OneBlade 2.0 and it's even better than my OneBlade 1.0! No matter what you do, you never stop improving." – Paid-up Stansberry Alliance member Jesse Haro
January 3, 2017