Volatility Creeps Higher

Last chance: Your best shot at 10-20 times gains... Is fear returning to the market?... Volatility creeps higher... Five-month highs for the VIX... 'Safe havens' are back in favor... Checking in on gold...


We begin today with a reminder...

By now, you likely know we held our big "Metropolitan Man" event last week...

Porter's high-profile source joined us live in our Baltimore headquarters on Wednesday, April 5. That evening, he not only publicly revealed his identity for the first time... he also shared the details on the secret "civil war" going on in Washington D.C. over "big deal" tax reform right now.

Again, you're likely familiar with all of this... In fact, if you're like many Digest readers, you were right there with us as it happened... or reviewed the video and transcript shortly after. (If you signed up for the event, but did not receive your permanent links to these materials, please let us know at info@stansberrycustomerservice.com.)

But you may not know we also put together a special offer to take advantage of this historic event...

In short, we just released brand-new research highlighting the companies that stand to win big – and those that stand to lose the most – as this war reaches its likely conclusion.

We call this list the "Trump Twelve"... and we'll be showing subscribers exactly how to position their portfolios to earn massive potential gains of 1,000% – that's 10 times your money – or more in the coming months.

Typically, we'd release research of this caliber in a brand-new trading advisory. But this time, we've decided to do something different...

We're releasing all of our new "Trump Trade" research through our existing Stansberry's Big Trade service. As you may recall, we launched this service last fall to show subscribers how to protect their portfolios – and earn a fortune – as the massive credit bubble implodes.

This means folks who sign up for our "Trump Twelve" research today will also get all of our original Stansberry's Big Trade research – including our ongoing "Dirty Thirty" trade recommendations – absolutely free.

And of course, everyone who joined Stansberry's Big Trade last fall has already received our latest "Trump Twelve" research for free, too.

Why are we doing this? Because going forward, whenever Porter and his team come across a "special situation" – a market event or anomaly that offers the chance to speculate for huge profits – Stansberry's Big Trade is where we'll be featuring it.

Right now, there are two "big trades"... But there will be others. And folks who join Stansberry's Big Trade today will get access to each and every one of them – for FREE – as part of their lifetime membership.

If you're interested, we must hear from you soon. This special offer ends tonight at midnight Eastern time. Click here for all the details.

After months of complacency, volatility is moving higher again...

As you can see in the chart below, the stock market's "fear gauge" – the Volatility Index (VIX) – has now jumped back above 15 for the first time since November's presidential election...

As regular readers know, this move has coincided with growing doubts about the "Trump Trade," as well as rising geopolitical tensions...

In recent days, the Trump administration has accused Russia of colluding with Syria over a suspected chemical weapon attack. The White House has also sent what Trump himself called an "armada" to the Korean Peninsula, and has promised to take "unilateral action" to deal with North Korean threats if necessary.

Of course, we have no crystal ball...

We can't say for certain if fear is finally returning to the market. And we don't know if these events will lead to the first significant correction in stocks in over a year.

But we do know that it's only a matter of time before volatility moves much higher again. As we wrote in the February 1 Digest, just days after the VIX closed below 11 for the first time in years...

Investors haven't been this complacent in nearly 10 years, since early 2007...

As you can see in the chart above, if there's one certainty in the markets it's this: Periods of market calm and complacency (when the VIX falls into the teens or lower) are always followed by periods of volatility and fear (when it leaps past 20).

So-called "safe haven" assets have also been moving higher...

We've discussed the rush back into bonds in recent days. But we note the yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasurys – which have long been considered a "safe haven," as the least-risky sovereign debt in the world – has now fallen below 2.3% for the first time since December. (Remember, bond yields trade inversely to bond prices... yields fall as prices rise.)

Gold and silver have been moving higher, too. Gold rose to a new five-month high above $1,280 an ounce today, while silver is just shy of its own five-month high at $18.40.

Speaking of gold, our colleague Ben Morris recently updated his DailyWealth Trader subscribers on the "big picture" in precious metals...

According to Ben, both gold and silver – as well as their related stocks – are near critical levels right now. As he wrote in the April 5 issue of DailyWealth Trader last week...

The first chart we'll look at today is a two-year chart of gold along with its 200-day moving average ("DMA"). You can see that the price of gold stopped rising or falling multiple times right near its 200-DMA. Right now, it's testing that "resistance" level for the third time in less than two months...

Gold stocks – represented by the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners Fund (GDX) – are still below their 200-DMA. But they're close to bumping up against a downtrend line, which is also likely to act as resistance...

Ben then showed how it's a similar situation in silver and silver stocks...

Silver broke through its 200-DMA on its first rally this year... then fell back below it shortly after. Now, it's once again trading back above the long-term moving average...

Silver stocks – represented by the Global X Silver Miners Fund (SIL) – look just like gold stocks. They're bumping up against a downtrend line, too...

Of those four assets, silver is the strongest. It's trading above its 200-DMA... And the 200-DMA itself is rising, which is another good sign. If we had to put money into the precious metals sector today, I'd lean toward silver and silver miners.

Finally, Ben noted that gold is also facing strong resistance according to its long-term chart...

When we look at a longer-term chart of gold, we see that gold faces a big resistance level at about $1,300 per ounce...

So even if gold breaks through its shorter-term resistance, we won't get aggressive in the sector until gold breaks though this longer-term resistance level. And gold only has to rise about 4% to get there.

So... what should you do with this information?

Ben says it's a great sign that precious metals and their stocks are all testing (or even breaking through) resistance levels. And seeing them all move higher from here would be a bullish sign.

But he also believes it could take a little more time for this to happen... So don't be surprised to see precious metals remain "choppy" for another month or two.

In sum, Ben says we don't have an "all clear" signal just yet... But we could soon.

New 52-week highs (as of 4/11/17): Euronet Worldwide (EEFT), National Beverage (FIZZ), Annaly Capital Management (NLY), and iShares MSCI India Small-Cap Fund (SMIN).

We've received several notes from subscribers asking if our recent warnings about the bond market don't contradict the advice to buy corporate bonds in our Stansberry's Credit Opportunities service. Don't worry... We assure you we haven't lost our minds. Tune in to tomorrow's Digest for the details. In the meantime, send your questions and comments to feedback@stansberryresearch.com. As always, we can't provide individual investment advice, but we read every e-mail.

Regards,

Justin Brill
Baltimore, Maryland
April 12, 2017